Who has actually benefited from conference realignment?

Everybody's making more money, of course, but overwhelmingly, the situation on the field has been less successful and fun

Over the past two weeks, the landscape of college athletics changed in a fundamental and shockingly quick way.

With Colorado already off to the Big 12, Oregon and Washington departed the Pac-12 for the Big Ten to strengthen the league’s new west coast wing. Shortly after those dominoes fell, league mates Arizona, Arizona State and Utah bolted for the Big 12. Now down to four teams with few, if any, feasible or attractive options for expansion, it appears likely that a century-old conference will cease to exist.

The gaggle of moves have raised existential questions about not only the future of college sports, but about the purpose of this entire enterprise. With a whole region of the country now unrepresented by a major conference and with a league stretching from New Jersey to Seattle, is college football losing the provincialism and regional identity that have long given it such a visceral appeal? (Yes, but that’s another post for another day)

As these conferences become increasingly unrecognizable, there’s another, more immediate and more practical question that sometimes goes unaddressed – who has actually benefited from this dizzying game of musical chairs?

The answer is everybody. Any school that jumped from one conference to another did so for entirely financial reasons and the motivations for those moves have materialized. Universities left their longtime athletic homes for greener pastures offering a bigger payday and, surely enough, they’ve all made more money.

But financial spreadsheets and TV contracts aren’t why millions of fans obsess over what is ultimately an imperfect, inferior product played by imperfect, inferior players. We follow it for the pursuit of victory and the joy that comes from that. If your team wins, your spirits are lifted in an irreplicable way. A team’s success defines a college, its students and alums, the community, state and even an entire region.

When viewed through this lens, college realignment has largely been a failure for the schools at the center of it. All of them have more money, sure, but only a select few have come close to matching the success they had in their old leagues.

Strangely enough, the two schools that have fared the best in this century’s wave of conference realignment are Utah and TCU, both of which came up from conferences without an automatic qualifying berth into the BCS. They, too, had the promise of a bigger payday, but their reasons for going to the Pac-12 and Big 12, respectively, were less cynical than the 13 universities since 2003 that went from one AQ conference to another. For all of their undeniable and overwhelming success, they didn’t have a realistic path to a championship based on college football’s power structure, so they had little choice but to chase that.

Those aforementioned 13 schools that switched leagues between 2003-14 haven’t achieved nearly as much. Some programs that were consistent winners or powerhouses in their old conferences have become also-rans or even laughingstocks in their new ones. It’s one of the lasting legacies of conference realignment.

If you don’t believe me, let’s take a look at those 13 schools and the impact of their change in league affiliation, going in order of most successful to least successful. While other sports are obviously impacted by these moves, these decisions are made primarily with football in mind (and what it means for a school’s value as a TV draw), so we’ll limit our examination to that.

Virginia Tech (Big East to ACC)

Conference record in last five years in old league: 24-11

Conference record in new league: 99-54

The Hokies were part of the first batch of moves in the modern realignment saga and for the majority of their time in the ACC, they were unquestionably a story of aspiration gone right. They won the conference in four of their first seven seasons in it and finished the season ranked in the top 20 nationally in each of those years. 

Following the retirement of program patriarch Frank Beamer after the 2015 season, though, they’ve languished. They’ve gone 28-33 over the past five seasons and have missed a bowl in two of the past three seasons after qualifying for the postseason every year from 1993-2019. After going 3-8 in coach Brent Pry’s first season last year, they’ll try to reclaim an identity they clearly lost.

And when this is perhaps your biggest success story, you know things are bad.

Pitt (Big East to ACC)

Conference record in last five years in old league: 22-13

Conference record in new league: 47-34

Think of the Panthers as sort of the anti-Virginia Tech, a program that started slowly in its new league before hitting its stride. A revolving door of coaches – Pitt had seven different coaches, including interims, over a six-year period from 2009-15 – and the destabilizing effect of that persistent change weighed down the program for years. 

Since hiring Pat Narduzzi in 2014, the Panthers have had the kind of consistent, sustained success that they hadn’t seen since the program’s glory days in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Pitt has won at least eight games in five of Narduzzi’s eight seasons and over the past two years, it has gone 20-7, the program’s best two-year stretch since Dan Marino was its quarterback. In one of those seasons, 2021, it became the only team other than Clemson or Florida State to win the ACC since 2010.

Texas A&M (Big 12 to SEC)

Conference record in last five years in old league: 19-22

Conference record in new league: 48-41

The Aggies’ move to the SEC raised more than a few eyebrows when it was made in 2011, largely because many fairly wondered how a middling program and chronic underachiever in the Big 12 was going to fare in the sport’s most ruthlessly competitive conference.

The transition has gone smoother than those more skeptical voices believed it would, especially at first. Texas A&M rode Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel to a 20-6 record in its first two seasons in the league. Since then, though, their fortunes have stagnated. The Aggies have had only one losing season in their 11 years in the SEC, but have finished above .500 in conference play only twice since 2012 and have never made the conference championship game.

And now, the rival they happily escaped by leaving the Big 12 in 2011, Texas, will once again be a conference mate starting in 2024.

Miami (Big East to ACC)

Conference record in last five years in old league: 33-2

Conference record in new league: 82-66

The Hurricanes being fourth here shows how slim the pickings truly are in this exercise. 

They entered the ACC near the height of their powers, having reestablished the championship pedigree and swagger that made them a historically excellent and culturally significant program in the 1980s. In each of their final four years in the Big East, from 2000-03, they won the conference and played in a BCS bowl game, two of which were national championships. 

They immediately started to slide upon getting to the ACC, with a pair of 9-3 seasons in 2004 and 2005 before things cratered. Over the past 17 years, they’ve won more than nine games just once after achieving that feat 13 times in the 19 years before that. They’ve never won an ACC title, something even Wake Forest has done, and finished atop the hilariously winnable ACC coastal division just once.

Louisville (Big East to ACC)

Conference record in last five years in old league: 15-20

Conference record in new league: 37-37

That second record tells you all you need to know – the Cardinals have, on average, been the literal epitome of average since joining the ACC in 2014. It hasn’t been a perpetual parade of mediocre seasons, but rather some dramatic highs and lows. That trend is perhaps best exemplified by going from producing a Heisman Trophy winner in Lamar Jackson and being a top-10 team for much of the season in 2016 to being a 2-10 punching bag just two years later.

The ill-conceived move to bring back Bobby Petrino eventually backfired after a strong start and Scott Satterfield’s four-year run at the school came to define the program's standing in its new home – far from bad, but not anything close to a credible and consistent threat to the conference’s powers. With Jeff Brohm now at the helm, that could soon be changing for the better, though.

West Virginia (Big East to Big 12)

Conference record in last five years in old league: 25-10

Conference record in new league: 47-51

Following the exit of Miami and Virginia Tech to the ACC in 2004, the Mountaineers became the Big East’s flagship program in the league’s final years of existence, winning the conference three times in their final seven years in it and never winning fewer than nine games during that stretch.

With the league crumbling following Pitt and Syracuse’s joint move to the ACC in 2011, they clung to the life raft the Big 12 provided them, even as the closest school to it, Iowa State, was more than 850 miles away. They got whatever safety and security the Big 12 provided, but life as a geographic outlier has been difficult at times. They’ve been something much more pedestrian over the past decade, with just one season with more than eight wins since 2011, and have been something even worse under coach Neal Brown, having gone 22-25 in his four years at the school.

Missouri (Big 12 to SEC)

Conference record in last five years in old league: 27-14

Conference record in new league: 41-50

Under coach Gary Pinkel, the Tigers had become one of the better teams in the Big 12 in their final years in the conference, winning at least 10 games in three of their last five seasons in the league. Between that success and their presence in the St. Louis and Kansas City media markets, they became an attractive addition for either the Big Ten or SEC before ultimately ending up in the latter.

With talented rosters that leaned heavily on Texas recruits, they made back-to-back SEC championship games in 2013 and 2014, but since then, and as the talent pipeline to Texas dried up once they left the Big 12, they’ve won more than seven games only once.

Nebraska (Big 12 to Big Ten)

Conference record in last five years in old league: 25-15

Conference record in new league: 47-55

The questions about whether Nebraska can ever make it back to the national prominence it once enjoyed have been around so long, they’re now old enough to legally drink. But while the Cornhuskers aren’t the dominant, overpowering force they were in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s, they had found their way back to respectability in their final years in the Big 12, going 29-12 from 2008-10.

But after going 37-15 in their first four years in the Big Ten, they’ve regressed significantly following the firing of Bo Pelini in 2014, going 32-56 since that decision was made. Worst of all, they’re running out of solutions. Scott Frost, who worked wonders in two years at UCF before heading back to his alma mater, was supposed to be the savior who understood the program and what made it great, but he went only 16-31 in five years before being fired. If noted program rebuilder Matt Rhule can’t save Nebraska, it’ll be fair to wonder if anybody can.

Boston College (Big East to ACC)

Conference record in last five years in old league: 17-17

Conference record in new league: 65-81

A respectable Big East program, the Eagles were the least exciting of the ACC’s additions in the league’s first wave of expansion in the early 2000s, but they turned heads early, finishing in the top 20 nationally in their first three seasons in the conference and going 47-19 in their first five years as a member.

The situation in Chestnut Hill has deteriorated from those heights. Since 2010, the Eagles have had a very hard and clearly defined ceiling, with no seasons with more than seven wins and or a record better than .500 in conference play. After a 3-9 finish last year, coach Jeff Hafley’s once-promising tenure appears to be reaching its end.

Maryland (ACC to Big Ten)

Conference record in last five years in old league: 12-28

Conference record in new league: 23-52

The Terrapins had fallen off from the apex of the Ralph Friedgen era by the time they got the invitation from the Big Ten in 2012. For much of their first nine years in the Big Ten, those shortcomings have continued, as they’ve finished with a non-losing record in conference play just once in that time.

Their situation has improved of late, with a 15-11 record over the past two seasons and bowl wins in consecutive years for the first time in two decades. This is a program that has never been a power and unlike the school it leapt to the Big Ten with, it hasn’t been an embarrassment. Under coach Mike Locksley, who has tapped into the bountiful recruiting area Maryland finds itself in, there’s even a certain level of optimism, particularly since starting in 2024, the Terrapins will no longer have to play in a division with Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State.

Syracuse (Big East to ACC)

Conference record in last five years in old league: 12-23

Conference record in new league: 26-56

The Orange’s win percentage in the ACC is almost identical to what it was in its final five years in the Big East, which I guess counts for something. They’ve been a predictably unpredictable program under coach Dino Babers, going several years without a bowl appearance before posting a breakthrough season in which they’ll climb into the top 15 of the national polls.

The last time they did that, they went from 10 wins to five. How they respond after a 7-5 regular season last year could be telling.

Colorado (Big 12 to Pac-12)

Conference record in last five years in old league: 12-28

Conference record in new league: 27-76

You can say this for the Buffs – it wasn’t like they were doing much better before switching leagues. A program that had fallen off in its final five years in the Big 12 plunged to new lows in the Pac-12, finishing with two or fewer conference wins in eight of their 12 years there. They’ve made a bowl just twice while a Pac-12 member and have only one season with more than five wins.

If Deion Sanders is able to turn the program around to anything resembling its late 1980s and early 1990s glory, it will be back in the Big 12.

Rutgers (Big East to Big Ten)

Conference record in last five years in old league: 18-17

Conference record in new league: 13-66

Earlier this week, The Athletic ran a story looking back on Rutgers’ Big Ten tenure, describing it as “the worst realignment move ever.” It’s a point that’s awfully hard to argue.

As hard as it might be to believe now, the Scarlet Knights were actually a solid and even strong program in their final years in the Big East, going 58-32 from 2006-12. In the Big Ten, though, they’ve been comically overmatched. In five of their nine years in the league, they’ve won one or zero conference games. After an 8-5 debut season in 2014, they’ve failed to finish with a winning record.

Even the supposed benefits of Big Ten membership haven’t materialized. According to a 2021 report from NorthJersey.com, Rutgers’ athletic department had racked up $265 million in debt.

*********

Between those 13 schools, there are just five conference championships, four of which came from a single school (Virginia Tech).

Even the bigger paychecks they’ve received only offer so much solace. They take in more money than they used to, but while competing against athletic departments that receive those same hefty conference payouts, it’s effectively a wash. 

Let’s use Missouri as an example. The Tigers spent 53.2% more on football in 2021 than they did in their final year in the Big 12 in 2012, but among the SEC’s 14 members, they were 13th in football spending, with eight schools pouring at least $10 million more into their programs. One of those teams ahead of them, Texas A&M, has headaches of its own. Between all the extra money from the SEC’s media rights deal and the university’s successful fundraising efforts, the Aggies were able to pry Jimbo Fisher from Florida State to be their next football coach in 2017 with a fully guaranteed contract that paid him $75 million over 10 years before it was reupped to a 10-year, $94.95 million deal in advance of the 2022 season. After going 5-7 last season despite signing one of the best recruiting classes in the history of the sport, Fisher very well might have been fired were it not for an unavoidable hurdle. If he were sacked, he would have been owed an astronomical $85.95 million.

Programs’ struggles in their new conferences can be tied to any number of factors, namely regrettable coaching hires. That shows one of the fallacies of changing conferences, though. For all that extra money you get to pour into your facilities and coaching salaries, you’re still subject to the same kind of dubious decision-making you would be in a smaller league. Only now, you’re locked in an opulent arms race that you’re seemingly destined to lose.

With more money come more problems – not just for those schools, but the sport their conference change-ups have indelibly harmed.